What’s Going on with the Swing States?

The 2016 presidential election was an interesting one. First, the winner of the popular vote did not win the electoral college. Second, the winner of the electoral college won it by the narrowest of margins. 

Now, the actual electoral college results were themselves not that close, 304 to 227. That said, there were three states – Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin – where the popular vote difference was under 1%. And those 3 states accounted for 46 electoral votes. In other words, less than 30,000 people across those 3 states could have swung the election!

2020 Vs. 2016

Right now, it looks like Biden’s ahead. CNN’s got him up 5%, CBS 6%, Reuters and Monmouth 9%, and Quinnipiac 11%. 

Something very similar, though, happened back in 2016, didn’t it? On November 6, 2016, the website 270towin.com averaged 10 major polls, and found Clinton ahead of Trump by a good 3%.

Needless to say, that was not reflected in the final results, was it? 

To be truthful, there really wasn’t that big a difference relative to popular vote. Clinton still won by 2%. 

What really made a difference, though, was what happened in those swing states mentioned above. In particular, each of those states had Clinton leading by a good bit – 3% for Pennsylvania, 5% for Michigan, and 7% for Wisconsin.

So, how do these numbers compare to those from 2020 (percentages are for Dems)?

State	2016 Poll	2020 Poll	Difference	Result
PA	3%	6%	3%	Biden
MI	5%	5%	0%	???
WI	7%	3%	-4%	Trump

In other words, based on what happened in 2016, Pennsylvania may be the only swing state to flip in 2020. With everything else the same, that would give Biden 247 electoral votes, still short of 270. If, however, Michigan were also to go blue, the total would then be 263 – still not enough.

Additional Swing States?

Needless to say, 2020 won’t be exactly like 2016. There may, in fact, be some states that might flip even though they weren’t that close back then. 

In particular, I noticed that there are a couple of states that were red in the polls and the election back in 2016, but are now leaning blue in the latest 2020 polls – North Carolina (1%), Arizona (3%), and Florida (4%).

Applying the same kind of logic as I did to those original 3 states, here’s how these new swings states shook out back then (percentages are for Republicans this time):

State	2016 Poll	2016 Election	Difference
NC	1%	-4%	-3%
AZ	4%	-4%	0%
FL	0%	-1%	-1%

In other words, that difference is what Biden will need to overcome in polling to actually have a shot at swinging these states. Though it’s a draw in Arizona, he’ll have to do a little better in Florida and a lot better in NC.

Now, let’s see how that shakes out given Biden’s current polling (percentages are for Biden this time):

State	2016 Difference	2020 Poll	Result
NC	3%	1%	Trump
AZ	0%	3%	Biden
FL	1%	4%	Biden

In other words, he only needed to do better than Trump in Arizona, and he got it. Similarly, he only needed to do better than 1% in Florida and did so. Only in NC was he unable to overcome the polling bias from 2016.

So, if we add the 2 states swinging toward Biden to the 2016 baseline, we’ve got 267 – 3 short! Only when we add Pennsylvania, from above, do we get over 270 – 287, to be exact. Finally, the Dems win.

Major caveat here … Yes, a lot will change before November. This is definitely something we can keep our eye on ‘til then though. 

Stay tuned!

Stage Names After Famous People

There are plenty of stage names out there. You probably already know that Marilyn Monroe was originally Norma Jan Mortensen. Or that Woody Allen is really Allan Konigsberg. I tell ya, there’s a million of ‘em.

What’s interesting is that there are a handful of celebs who decided to go with a name that was already taken. Surely, you didn’t think that David Copperfield was his real name, did you?

Now, I’m not sure what the thinking was behind some of these choices. It may simply be fame by association. Alternatively, they could simply be to attract attention. I do know, though, that they’re pretty unusual. 

So, here’s a list of all the ones I could come up with. They’re in rough order of obscure to famous. Enjoy!


Dorian Gray – Maria Luisa Mangini
Iconic fictional character, meet obscure Italian actress

As you probably already know, Dorian Gray is the main character of Oscar Wilde’s only novel, The Picture of Dorian Gray. In a rather Gothic twist, Gray’s wish that he remain forever young is fulfilled, while his portrait ages instead.

I haven’t the slightest clue why Ms. Mangini went with the name (I mean, look at the pix below). Something of a sexpot, the actress did 32 films, all in Italian, in the 50s and 60s. Her main claim to fame is probably being in Fellini’s Nights of Cabiria. Less famous vehicles include Toto, Pepino, and the Hussy; Colossus and the Amazon Queen; and Accident of the Taxes.

By the way, other famous Dorian Grays include a British singer, a Swiss singer-songwriter, and a band from Bosnia.

Frances Drake – Frances Dean
Famous British explorer, meet obscure American actress

Sir Francis Drake (note the i) was a pirate, explorer, and vice admiral in the Royal Navy, and was active in the Elizabethan era. He was the second person to navigate the globe, and was famous for giving the Spaniards fits.

Frances Drake (note the e) was not as obscure as Dorian Gray, but not by much. Frances did 42 movies during the ‘20s and ‘30s. Her biggest role was in the 1935 version of Les Miserables. She was also in a couple of proto-horror and proto-sci-fi numbers. She does have a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame.

We also know that Paramount came up with the name to avoid confusion with the then-famous Frances Dee. Another possibility batted about was Marianne Morel. Probably shoulda gone with that, to tell you the truth.

Leif Erickson – William Anderson
Norse explorer, meet obscure American actor

Leif Erikson (note the lack of a c) discovered America. Yup, Christopher Columbus came to the party about 500 years late. Leif landed in Newfoundland, where he founded the short-lived settlement of Vinland. 

The actor guy? Well, he actually wasn’t that obscure. I’m talking 150 credits and over 50 plus years in the biz. Now, that included a lot of TV at the end of his career, but also some major motion pictures earlier on as well (On the Waterfront, The Snake Pit, Show Boat, Tea and Sympathy …). A character actor, he may actually be more famous for marrying the actress and famous crazy person Frances Farmer than for his thespian skills.

The name came from a band leader (Erickson started out as a vocalist and trombone player). His original screen name was Glenn Erickson. Not sure what was wrong with that.

There also happens to be an American politician of the same name out there, as well as no less than three Swedes (a swimmer, a soccer player, and the “inventor of the Swedish bagpipes”).

(Superstar) Billy Graham – Wayne Coleman
Popular evangelist, meet studio wrestler

Billy Graham was known as the “pastor to the presidents.” He served as religious advisor to chief executives from Harry Truman to Barack Obama. He was also famous for his crusades, preaching to 210 million people in over 185 countries. 

Wayne Coleman sounds like he might have been pretty famous in wrestling circles. I don’t really run in those circles, though, so I’ll just have to take it their word for it. A big Christian, Coleman actually did indeed name himself after the evangelist. 

To be quite honest with you, there are way too many other Billy (and Bill) Grahams to list here. Heck, there’s even another one from wrestling – manager Halfbreed Billy Graham.

John Paul Jones – John Baldwin
Father of the American Navy, meet British rock ‘n roller

John Paul Jones hoisted the first American flag over a naval vessel, conducted a number of raids, captured a few British ships, lost the Bonhomme Richard, and uttered the memorable “I have not yet begun to fight.” Interestingly, he was actually born John Paul. He added the Jones in a bid to hide from the law. Indeed, Jones was accused of crimes a number of crimes, including piracy and flogging a sailor to death. Somehow or other, he ended his career as a vice admiral in the Russian navy.

John Baldwin was the bassist and keyboardist for Led Zeppelin. A session musician before the band got together, he pretty much returned to his roots when the band subsequently disbanded. He also did some producing, cut a few of his own albums, and formed a short-lived supergroup with Dave Grohl (ex Nirvana) and Josh Homme (ex Queens of the Stone Age) called Them Crooked Vultures.

Baldwin changed his name, very early on in his career, at the instigation of Andrew Loog Oldham, the Rolling Stones manager. Oldham had seen a poster for a film of the same name (about the naval hero) and, thinking Baldwin’s real name needed a little pizzazz, convinced him to adopt it.

Hard to believe, but there are two other John Paul Jones out there (an artist and an athlete), as well as a Johnpaul Jones (an architect).

Albert Brooks – Albert Einstein
Funny American actor/director, meet world-famous scientist

Wait a minute. This one’s a little different, isn’t it? Indeed, poor Albert Lawrence Einstein had to change his name to avoid – rather than seek out – notoriety (and confusion). What were the poor guy’s parents thinking?

Those parents actually were somewhat famous as a showbiz family, though both had no issue using a stage name. Perhaps they could have simply switched their boy’s two names, or even ditched the Albert all together, ya know?

Anyway, the first Albert Einstein was a pretty smart guy. I’ve got him behind the Theory of Relativity, the e=mc2 equation, and the Unified Field Theory. He also won a Nobel, among many other awards. Like I say, smart guy.

The second Albert Einstein (AKA Albert Brooks) started out as a comedian, becoming a regular on talk shows. He then ventured into acting, then directing. He had an Oscar nomination for Broadcast News and a starring role in and lots of critical acclaim for Drive. I just can’t help wonder, though, if his career would have been more successful if he’d simply kept his birth name.

Where did the Brooks come from?  No clue.

Paul Revere – Paul Revere Dick
Famous American patriot, meet founder of cheesy ‘60s rock ‘n roll band

Paul Revere was famous for his “midnight ride,” jumping on his horse to let the colonial militia know of the movement of British troops before the battles of Lexington and Concord.  He also happened to be a very talented silversmith. 

Paul Revere Dick (yup, that’s his real name) was the leader of Paul Revere and the Raiders. The only “hit” I remember of theirs was a #1, “Indian Reservation.”  You know, “Cherokee nation / Cherokee tribe / So proud to live / So proud to die.”  Dick himself passed away in 2014, but the Raiders are very much still active (though with none of the original members).

I have no idea why our musician wanted to get rid of his surname. Honestly, it’s a total mystery.

Booker T – Booker T. Jones
African-American scientist and social pioneer, meet leader of Motown band

Born a slave, Booker T. Washington became one of the leaders of Black America in the period after the Civil War. He worked his way through college, and then founded and led a college of his own, Tuskeegee, in Alabama. He was also well known for the book Up from Slavery, and for his connections with several presidents and other leading figures of his day.

Booker T. Jones was named for Booker T. Washington by way of his father, Booker T. Jones, Sr. Something of a child prodigy, Booker Jr. played multiple instruments and got his first record credit at age 16. He formed Booker T. and the M.G.’s in 1962, with the band still going strong today. He was awarded a lifetime Grammy in 2007.

Engelbert Humperdinck – Arnold Dorsey
Obscure German composer, meet mostly forgotten English singer

The real Engelbert Humperdinck is mostly known for composing the opera Hansel and Gretel.  A follower of Wagner, he also seems to have been a talented teacher himself. His other namesake is an asteroid belt, out there in space somewhere.

Arnold Dorsey was a crooner of the ‘60s and ‘70s. Born in India of British parents (though he looks pretty darn Indian to me), he came to the UK at age 10. Dorsey has been successful on both sides of the pond, and has homes in both the UK and US. He’s sold more than 140 million records. Some of hits include "Release Me," "The Last Waltz, "After the Lovin'" and "This Moment in Time." Wikipedia damns him with faint praise by calling him “one of the finest middle-of-the-road balladeers around.”

As for the name change, Dorsey had actually performed for several years under his given name. Looking for something more distinctive, his manager suggested the extremely distinctive Engelbert Humperdinck. Sounds like it worked.

Marc Anthony – Marco Muniz
Roman politician and general, meet contemporary Latin singer

A supporter of Julius Caesar, Marc Anthony ruled Rome with two others after Caesar’s death. After the three fell out, Anthony lost the subsequent civil war. When it was obvious his time was up, he and paramour Cleopatra committed suicide. Perhaps you’ve heard of the story.

Marco Muniz was actually born Marco Antonio Muniz. So, all he really did was just drop the last name. Hard to believe, but he was actually named after another singer by the exact same name. Our Marco’s won two Grammys and sold 12 million albums worldwide. He’s been married three times, to J Lo, a Miss Universe, and a model. Not sure how the short, rat-like-looking guy does it.

Hmm, looks like our singer wasn’t the first to nab this name. I’m seeing a writer, a DJ, a football player, and a soccer player as well.

Tom Jones – Tom Woodward
Famous fictional character, meet largely forgotten British singer

The History of Tom Jones, a Foundling is one of the first novels in English. Written by Henry Fielding, it was published in 1749. It’s a bawdy, humorous tale of Tom’s adventures, and one of the classics of English literature.

Tom Woodward was born in Wales, and became popular in the mid-60s. He’s sold over 100 million records. Hits include "It's Not Unusual", "What's New Pussycat", "Green, Green Grass of Home", "Delilah", "She's a Lady", "Kiss" and "Sex Bomb." He’s won a Grammy and also a CBE.

Woodward was given his name by manager Gordon Mills. It’s a pure play on an Academy-Award-winning 1963 movie based on the novel. 

Don’t be too surprised that there are other Tom Joneses out there. I count 14 athletes, two politicians, and five “others.”

Jane Seymour – Joyce Frankenberg
Short-lived English queen, meet hot English actress

Remember the old mnemonic for Henry VIII’s wives, “Divorced, beheaded, died, divorced, beheaded, survived”? Well, Jane Seymour was the “died” one. She was queen for little over a year, dying right after giving birth to the future Edward VI. She was the only one of Henry VIII’s wives to receive a proper state funeral, and is buried next to him.

You may know her better as Dr. Quinn, or perhaps Solitaire from Live and Let Die, but Joyce Penelope Wilhelmina Frankenberg has won an Emmy, two Golden Globes, and an OBE. Hard to believe she’s 59 – she still looks incredible.

Joyce decided on her screen name on her own, thinking it more palatable to English ears. There are actually a couple of other Jane Seymours out there – the original Jane’s niece, a writer, as well as another actress (with this one coming from Canada).

David Copperfield – David Kotkin
Beloved Dickens character, meet famous American magician

David Copperfield may be Dickens’ most popular book, and the title character his most famous as well. I guess the main competition here would be have to be Oliver Twist. Interestingly, both books are about poor young lads and their hardships growing up. Everything turns out alright for both of them in the end though.

David Kotkin is probably the most successful magician ever. He’s garnered a slew of Emmys, a bunch of Guinness World Records, a French knighthood, and a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame. Further, he’s sold over 30 million tickets and grossed over four billion dollars. Oh, and he also married super model Claudia Schiffer.  Not too bad for a shy Jewish bot from Metuchen, NJ who took up magic to “meet women.”

The name? Turns out “he liked the sound of it.”  Interestingly, though, he’s never been able to finish the book, finding it “too dark for my tastes.”

Richard Burton – Richard Jenkins
19th Century British explorer, meet famous British actor

According to Wikipedia, Richard Burton was “a British explorer, geographer, translator, writer, soldier, orientalist, cartographer, ethnologist, spy, linguist, poet, fencer, and diplomat” (okay, you can take a breath now). He spoke 29 languages, and was famous for his translations of classics such as The Perfumed Garden, the Kama Sutra, and One Thousand and One Nights. He was knighted and was also a fellow of the Royal Geographical Society.

Richard Jenkins was a poor Welsh boy who made good in the world of the theater. A noted Shakespearean, he would be nominated for seven Academy Awards, though never winning. He would probably be best known, though, for his on-again, off-again relationship with Elizabeth Taylor. 

He actually named himself for a mentor of his, schoolteacher Phillip Burton. Phillip would actually later become Richard’s legal guardian, with Richard adopting Phillip’s surname by deed poll. So, in other words, not what we were thinking at all.