2020 Presidential Election Prediction

Gotta get it all down.

It’s certainly been in my head for a good long while. And as the big day approaches, it seems to take up more and more space up there. Heck, as an old political junkie, I’ve actually used it to fight insomnia, kind of like a particularly obsessed way of counting sheep.

So, with 2 weeks to go, my predictions for the 2020 presidential race …

Worst Case

I’m not sure my heart and nervous system could take another one of these, but here you go. This is really just taking various maps out there and turning everything that wasn’t at least “likely” blue to red.

Squeaker

This one basically takes the worst-case scenario and adds in the “leans” blue states, adding only enough of those to get Biden over the line (and in order of how they were polling on 538.com).

This could actually be the way things look on Wednesday morning if:

• The South stays red 
• The upper Midwest reverts back to blue

Best Case

I wish. This one takes the “leans” blue plus all the toss-ups (and one “leans” red, Texas) and paints them all blue. It’s really not that far-fetched, at least according to current polls. We’ll see …

Fantasyland

What if we eliminated all the “leans” and “likelys” from multiple sources, having them breaking blue, in both cases? You’d get something crazy (and highly attractive and extremely unlikely), like this:

My Prediction

I’m gonna play it safe here. This one simply takes the squeaker scenario and throws in two more states – Florida and Arizona – that seem to have a pretty good shot of reversing their 2016 votes.

How To Name Your Kid II

Last week, we looked at our first 6 rules for naming your baby. Here are 7 more …

7.  Look It Up

You can accomplish two things with this rule. One, you can get a real feel for how popular your choice may be. And that’s really just to see whether the name you might think is unique and special is what everyone else is thinking is unique and special too.

Believe me, it happens all the time. In fact, it even happened in my own family. 20-some years ago, my wife was enamored of the name Conor. I tried to convince her that it was tres populaire and to go with something else, but was, alas, unsuccessful. Since then, there’s been at least one other Conor/Conner/Connor in every classroom, sports team, or youth group he’s been a part of.

Second, you can see if there are any associations that might cause trouble down the road. Everyone knows not to name their boy Adolf. Or, if your last name is Bundy, to stay away from Theodore (or Al or Peggy, for that matter). 

Not everything is so obvious though. Just type it in and see what you get. Also see #13.

8.  Make Sure They Go Together

I don’t think this one happens very often. But it is something to at least keep in the back of your mind.

Usually, these pop up as jokes – Charity Ball, Evan Keel, Robin Banks, Ben Dover, Barb Dwyer, Sam and Ella … There are, though, some actual cases. I’m thinking Ben Lyon (actor), May Elizabeth Cook (sculptor), Will Hunt (musician), Willie Thrower (NFL QB), and Claire Coffee (actress).

Yeah, those are pretty obscure, aren’t they? Alright, then, just think of anything with Harry – Harry Potter, Harry Blackmun, Harry Reasoner …

9.  Consider the Initials

For me, this one hits particularly close to home. My parents didn’t seem to be too aware of this rule, naming me Clifford Paul Anderson. Somehow or other, though, I managed to dodge a lifetime of chartered accountancy.

It actually doesn’t seem to be that common, thankfully. An Internet search of celebs with this issue turned up only B list types – James A. Michener (JAM), Stephen A. Douglas (SAD), Lesley Ann Warren (LAW), Paul Thomas Anderson (PTA) …

A review of social media sites, though, uncovered quite a few for us less celebrated folks – STD, PMS, SOB, MSG, BLT, WTF, GAS, ARF, TIT, HAM, FAG, BAD ... This was also the case when it was only the first two syllables – BO, BM, BS, EZ, PP, WC – as well.

Will people even notice? As with #11, I think there is some definite teasing potential here, especially among people who might be less mature than you, the parent.

10.  Consider the Nickname

Love Richard? How do you feel about Dick? It’s got to be Elizabeth? Which nickname are you gonna go with then – Liz, Lizzie, Liza, Beth, Betsy, Betty?

Another thing to watch out for is how a possible nickname might go with your surname. And that means alliteration (Peggy Person), rhyming (Chuck Tuck), combinations (Ben Ito), and who knows what else. 

It seems a little far-fetched, but there are actually some celebs out there with these kinds of issues. Perhaps you’ve heard of songwriter Chris Cross? Singer Tony Terry? YouTube star Will Power (real name)? 

Now, you do have some control over this. You can always introduce your little darlin’ as Benjamin, or Eleanor, or Samantha. But don’t be too surprised if those morph into Ben, Ellie, and Sam when you’re not around. 

11. Consider the Playground

Kids can be cruel. Wear braces as a kid? Well, you probably got called “metal mouth” then, didn’t you? “Four eyes,” “pizza face,” “fatty,” “pigpen,” “carrot top” – seems like there’s something out there for everything.

An odd name is just one more excuse for bullying and ridicule. Dustin Hoffman likes to tell the story of being called “Dustbin” in elementary school. 

Heck, even totally normal names can get the treatment – Dizzy Lizzie, Hannah Banana, Betsy Wetsy, Maggot (for Margaret), Ape (for April), Ellie Mae … 

Think like a kid! What’s the worst a devious 6th grade bully can come up with?

12. Consider Gender

Gender-bending actually seems to be quite a popular naming strategy these days. Indeed, it seems especially favored among celebs’ kids – James (Blake Lively & Ryan Reynolds), Maxwell (Jessica Simpson), Wyatt (Aston Kucher & Mila Kunis), Mason (Kelsey Grammar), Lincoln (Dax Shepard & Kristin Bell). And, yes, those are all girls.

Indeed, this one seems to go only one way. You’re not going to find a lot of girls’ names among the guys. There aren’t many Elvira Presleys, Erin Rogers, or Josephine Bidens out there. It’s pretty much a one-way street. When girls start taking over a name, parents drop that name for boys like a hot potato. In fact, would you believe that Shirley, Beverly, Leslie, Sidney, Kim, Kelly, Lindsey, and Alexis all were once 100% male?

13. Consider Meaning

We’ve already touched on the negative here (#7). It’s not just Adolf and Osama though. Ask yourself, what are your associations with names like Damien, Lolita, Hannibal, and Jemima? Okay. Now, how about Karen, Becky, or Chad?

Another possibility here is the actual, literal meaning of the name. Did you know, for example, that Mallory means “unlucky,” Leah “weary,” Cameron “crooked nose,” and Portia “pig”? Will anybody even know? Will anybody care? Probably not, but it is still a good thing to know.

Of course, you can always take a completely opposite tack, and go all positive. This can mean people you admire (famous or not), of course, but also ideas, things, and places as well. My eldest son, Liam John, is a good example of the former. That middle name of his is for a beloved uncle who passed away (on my wife’s side), as well as John Keats, John F. Kennedy, and John Lennon (on my side). As for the latter, you’re probably already familiar with Margaux and Mariel Hemingway. Did you know, though, that they were named after, respectively, Chateaux Margaux wine and a Cuban fishing port?

Special Extra Bonus Tip – Stick with Three

First of all, it’s gotta be a pain. I mean, what you do on forms? Second, it seems just a bit pretentious.

That said, there are definitely some out there though:

• Daniel Michael Blake Day-Lewis
• Julia Scarlett Elizabeth Louis-Dreyfus
• Caleb Casey McGuire Affleck-Boldt
• Kiefer William Frederick Dempsey George Rufus Sutherland

My advice to you, though, is that three’s company … and four (or more) is definitely a crowd.

You might also enjoy:

• You named your child what? (Boys)
• You named your child what (Girls)

How To Name Your Kid I

What were they thinking? Honestly, does something happen to parents’ brains during pregnancy? How else to explain the crazy stuff they come up with? Just in my office, recent additions include Wren Wright, Gwyn Klopp, Parker Pope (a girl), and Elliot Barrett (another girl).

I do know that a lot of parents want to come up with something different, something special. Compounding that is the fact that most expecting parents won’t share their ideas with others. So, no chance for feedback on whether that different and special name might not be just a little too different and special. And even if they do get feedback, they tend to become quite defensive at anything even vaguely critical. “It’s our child, and we’ll name it what we want!” End of discussion.

Here’s the deal though. You’re not naming yourself. You have instead quite a grave responsibility on your hands. Your child is going to have to live with whatever you come up with, for the rest of their lives. It’s not all about you.

Does it really matter though? You bet it does. Here are some things that researchers have shown can result when junior is saddled with the wrong name:

• Increased criminality  
• Reduced employment rate
• Poorer self-image
• Poorer grades
• Poorer prospects at online dating sites

Fear not, though, expecting parent! As an amateur onomatologist who’s been studying this stuff for years, I can definitely help you out. Forthwith, a lucky 13 rules to a winning name for your future bundle of joy.

1  Avoid Alliteration

Why? Well, it’s typically used for comic effect, that’s why. I’m talkin’ Mickey Mouse, Donald Duck, Bugs Bunny, Beetle Bailey, Betty Boop, Tom Terrific, Tony the Tiger, Captain Crunch …

Now, some celebrities do seem to get away with it – Marilyn Monroe, Jesse James, Rachel Ray, Danny DeVito, Charlie Chaplin … Some, though, definitely seem to push the envelope a little – Mickey Mantle, Ronald Reagan, Gilbert Gottfried, Lucy Lawless … (which may have something to do with #3). 

And some are just simply beyond the pale – Parker Posey, Travis Tritt, Lucy Liu, Wim Wenders …

Here’s the thing though. Celebs are familiar. Once others have gotten used to their names, alliteration might, in fact, help make them more memorable. So, will the same apply for your non-celebrity child? Or will that alliterative name just sound a little “mickey mouse”? 

2  Don’t Rhyme

And let’s not forget the other end of each name either. Hard to believe, but it does happen. 

Rhyming, like alliteration, is also used extensively for comic effect – Ronald McDonald, Hannah Montana, Amelia Bedelia, Anna Banana … The overall effect is definitely sing-songy. Can’t you just hear a bunch of grade schoolers chanting these?

Names with a matching number of syllables seem to stand out in particular – Mark Clark, Fay Wray, Jack Black … but also Harry Carey, Halle Berry, Katy Perry, and Shaquille O’Neal as well. Conversely, those with some variety seem to fair a little better – Conor McGregor, Marco Rubio, Jason Richardson …

And, whatever you do, don’t simply repeat the first name – Chris Christie, Kris Kristoffersen, Ricky Ricardo, John Henry Johnson … 

3  Vary the Syllables

This one isn’t quite as bad as those first two. And for these, it’s really the one-syllable ones that stand out, especially if they’ve got some punchy sounds in there, like p’s and b’s and t’s and k’s. I’m thinking Jack Spratt, Mike Trout, Rand Paul, Rip Torn, Zach Braff, Kate Spade, Bo Gritz … 

Even multiple syllable-names can sound a little funny though – Derek Jeter, Ferris Bueller, Jason Bateman, Barbara Billingsley, Jennifer Connolly … A lot depends on the where the stresses fall. That can get pretty technical, though, so I just recommend staying away from them altogether.

4  Vary Commonality

This one can go two ways. If you’ve got a weird last name, stay away from weird first names. You know, Engelbert Humperdink, Buford Pusser, Benedict Cumberbatch, Reince Priebus, Shia Lebeouf, Tallulah Bankhead …

Conversely, if your last name is as common as dirt, avoid the Johns, and Biils, and Marys and Anns. I’m talkin’ John Smith, John Brown, Tom Jones, Mary Richards …

What to do instead? Well, if you’ve got the first problem, try something nice and simple – Mike Krzyzewski, Jay Rockefeller, Zach Galifianakis, David Hasselhoff … And if it’s the second, feel free to spice it up a bit – Rashida Jones, Emmitt Smith, Dakota Johnson, Marlo Thomas, Serena Williams …

 

4  Don’t Vary Ethnicity

Honestly, this just doesn’t come up that much. I had to go to one of my favorite books, John Train’s Most Remarkable Names, to get the likes of Santiago Nudelman, Bernardo O’Higgins, and Siddhartha Greenblatt. 

You get the idea, though, right? If you’re proud of your ethnic heritage, go ahead and call your child Padraig, or Mireille, or Kwame, or Dongmei. Those go perfectly with an equally ethnic surname – Leonardo DiCaprio, Mila Kunis, Cormac McCarthy, Mario Cuomo, Timothee Chalamet … 

They also go well with more neutral, classically “American”names as well, whether they reflect your ethnicity or not – Ronan Farrow, Maurice Gibb, Uma Thurman, Julio Jones ... What they don’t go well with are equally ethnic surnames from other traditions. Think Yoko Johansson, Siorse Garcia, Dmitri O’Hanrahan, Giovanni Wroblewski…

5  Spell It Right

First off, you are not making your child special. And that’s particularly the case if you start with some well-worn favorite and try your best to butcher it up a little – Kaleb, Jaxon, Mychal, Ashlie, Shyanne, Chace …

What you’re really doing is sentencing your child to a life of answering the questions:

• How do you spell that?
• Why is it spelled that way?
• How do you spell that again?
• Could your parents not spell?

Are they out there? Sure, plenty of people are guilty – Courteney Cox, Britney Spears, Megyn Kelly, Khloe Kardashian … 

That doesn’t mean you have to be though.

6  Don’t Get Too Creative

Sure enough, you can get creative with more than just spelling. For example, you can use other words never before used as names before. For some reason, those seem to be especially popular with celebrities – Apple Martin, North West, Blanket Jackson, Sage Moonblood Stallone …

Alternatively, just make stuff up – Whoopi Goldberg, LeBron James, Miley Cyrus, Ladanian Tomlinson …

For the second route, you’re gonna run into the same problems as with creative spelling. For the first, you’re just going to get blank stares and titters.

More rules next week