Monday, June 2, 2014

The Best World Series Ever!

What makes a great World Series? Well, it’s pretty subjective, isn’t it? 

I do know it’s got to be more than individual plays (Bill Mazeroski’s homer to win the ’60 Series against the Yankees, say), or individual performances (Don Larsen’s perfect game in ‘76), or individual games (the 12-inning Game 6 of the ‘75 Series between the Red Sox and Reds). It’s also probably more than a contest between arch rivals (Yankees and Brooklyn Dodgers anyone?) or between David and Goliath (Mets over Orioles in ‘69). 

Maz and friends

So, what is it? Is there a more objective way to measure something like this? 

Well, the first thing we probably want to do is to limit it to just seven-game series. I mean, that’s as close and drawn-out as you’re gonna  get pretty much by definition, right? No use including shutouts, 4-1’s, or even 4-2’s. I mean, how competitive were those really if the challenger couldn’t even bring it down to the last game?

Beyond that, though, what else could we use? Well, I happened to have thought about that quite a bit, and here are my suggested criteria:
  • Run differential – The lower the run differential, the closer the games. (Make sure, though, that’s a total of the run differential for every game, not the total for the whole series.)
  • Lead changes – The more of these, the more drama and the more it seems like either team could win.
  • Extra innings – Every extra inning only ups the tension.
  • Walk-off victories – What could be more dramatic than those? 

So, here’s what I did:
  1. Take the 36 seven-game series
  2. Rank each one by the criteria above
  3. Give the number one team 1 point, the number two 2, and so on
  4. Add up those values for all of the rankings
  5. Lowest total wins

So, let me give you an example …  Let’s take the last seven-game series, the 2011 one between Texas and St. Louis.
  1. The run differential was 22. That comes in at number 14, so there’s 14 points.
  2. There were 6 lead changes, which also happens to rank 6th overall. So that’s 6 points.
  3. There was only one extra game, which went into the 10th. So that’s 2 extra innings, which just so happens to rank 9th (17 of the series didn’t have any extra innings). So that’s 9 more points.
  4. Finally, there was one walk-off victory, in that extra-inning game. Once again, there were 17 series without any walk-offs, so this number is pretty high – 6 in our case.
  5. Add ‘em all together, and you’ve got 35 points.

After doing the same for all the other seven-game series, the 2011 Series actually comes in sixth.  Who would have thunk it?

David Freese walk-off homer in Game 6

Here are the overall top 10:
Year Winner Loser Points
1975 Cinn Bos AL 13
1924 Wash NYG 22
1912 Bos AL NYG 33
1997 Fla Clev 34
2011 StL Tex 35
1991 Minn StL 37
2001 Ariz NYY 39
1964 StL NYY 39
1947 NYY Brkln 41
1952 NYY Brkln 41

You may not be surprised that the ’75 Series is the best. In fact, it ranked no lower than fourth in every category. Carlton Fisk’s homer in the bottom of the twelth in Game 6 is just gravy.

That ’24 Series might be something of a surprise however. Yes, it was a very long time ago (and who knew the Senators were ever even in a World Series). But this series was tops for run differential (13) and extra innings (6). What’s holding it back was lead changes – a mere three. 
Walter Johnson’s dramatic four-inning save in the 12-inning 
Game 7 may have made this one of the best WS games ever

I guess some other surprises would be the number of series from recent years and, consequently, the limited number of those from the “golden age” of baseball. It is good to see some Yankee versus Dodger classics made it though.

Some other highlights:
  • The 1991 Series had the most walk-offs, with 4
  • That series also tied for the most extra innings with the ’24 Series
  • Lead changes – a mere 2 – kept the ‘91 Series from finishing much higher
  • The 1958 Series, with Milwaukee beating the Yankees, had the most lead changes, with 8 (it came in 11th overall, just missing the top 10)

By the way, the least competitive 7-game series was in 1965, when the Dodgers beat the Twins. Somehow, they managed to do that without an extra-inning game or walk-off, and with a differential of 33 runs and only 1 lead change!

The Worst World Series Ever!

So, what was the most non-competitive series? Well, reverse-engineering this a little (and only looking at 4-0 series), it looks like it would be the 1989 Series, where the A’s pounded the Giants. No walk-offs, no extra innings, no lead changes (!?!?), and a differential of 18 runs.

Probably more memorable for the earthquake

A close second was 2007, where the Red Sox trounced the Cards. Once again, no walk-offs, no extra innings, just 1 lead change, and a differential of 19 runs.

Interestingly, the most competitive four-game series was in 2005, when the Chisox whomped the Astros. That one had 1 walk-off, 5 extra innings, 4 lead changes, and a run differential of only 6.

Monday, May 5, 2014

How Preppy Were the Presidents?

There’s a lot of talk these days about “elites.” It’s a favorite trope of the Republicans, who typically cite academics, and actors, and policy wonks, and anyone else they can come up with who seem to be “out of touch” with the average Joe. Now, I’ve always assumed that’s just pure projection, as I can’t imagine who could possibly be more elite than the super rich and the politicians who serve them. 

I was wondering, though … Is there a way we can measure “eliteness”? Hmm …  Ever read The Official Preppy Handbook? I can’t imagine a better place to start than that. But how to quantify all the things that that book covers? Square footage of madras in closet? Use of dorky nicknames, like Trip or Tipper or Poppy? 

Well, heck, why not just cut to the chase and measure whether a politician went to prep school or not? Or an Ivy (the college equivalent)? Yup, I think we’ve got a winner. So, here’s how it’ll work:
  • 1 point for attending prep school
  • 1 point for an Ivy bachelors
  • 1 point for an Ivy postgraduate degree

And what I’ll be looking at is presidential elections from 1868 to 2012. I think that defines the modern political scene pretty well, in addition to giving plenty of opportunity for our candidates to turn up the collars of their polo shirts as well.

Who’s the Preppiest of Them All?

Well, overall, would you believe it’s the Democrats? Yup, 39 to 32. My guess, though, is most of that can be attributed to a single person, one Franklin Delano Roosevelt. That fine Groton and Harvard grad (2 points) was on the ticket no less than four times (8 points). Take him out of the picture, and things are pretty even.

The preppiest ticket? Well, only one ticket garnered 4 points. And that one was Gore / Lieberman. That’s St. Albans and Harvard for the first guy, and Yale and Yale Law for the second one. More Dems. Hmm …

Gore / Lieberman
(+1 point for button-down collar,
-1 point for pit stain)

I’ve also got several with 3 points each:

Year Party Prez Points Veep Points
1912 Rep Taft 1 Butler 2
1956 Dem Stevenson 2 Kefauver 1
1972 Dem McGovern 0 Shriver 3
1992 Dem Clinton 1 Gore 2
1996 Dem Clinton 1 Gore 2
2000 Rep Bush 3 Cheney 0
2004 Rep Bush 3 Cheney 0

The preppiest candidate

Well, as you can probably tell from the graph above, we’ve got two. On the Democratic side, we’ve got Sargent Shriver. That’s Canterbury, Yale, and Yale Law. Extra points for the surname as first name and for marrying a Kennedy. 

R. Sargent Shriver Weds Eunice Kennedy
May 23, 1953, St. Patricks Cathedral, New York, NY

One the Republican side, we’ve got “Dubya,” the regular guy with the Texas drawl who everyone wanted to share a beer with. For him, it’s Phillips Andover, Yale, and Harvard Biz School. 

George W. Bush
Phillips Andover cheerleader

Are We Getting Preppier?

Well, if it wasn’t obvious from the table above, we are indeed getting preppier. Here’s graphical proof:


If you need a little help interpreting this:
  • The X axis is presidential elections (1 = 1868, 38 = 2012)
  • The Y axis is total points (all prez and veep candidates combined)

By the way, those elections with 0 points? They were:

Year Dem Prez Dem VP Rep Prez Rep VP
1880 Hancock English Garfield Arthur
1884 Cleveland Hendricks Blaine Logan
1888 Cleveland Thurman Harrison Morton
1892 Cleveland Stevenson Harrison Reid
1924 Davis Bryan Coolidge Dawes
1928 Smith Robinson Hoover Curtis

What Does It All Mean?

Well, I guess we shouldn’t be too surprised to learn that Republicans are preppy. Like I said before, the party is basically for the super rich, the politicians who serve them, and any chumps from the other 99% they can get to vote for them.

But why would Democrats be preppy? I mean, they’re the party of the people, right? Now, Republicans would like us to think that Democrats are all pointy-headed intellectuals who are totally out of touch and think they know best for all of us.

An alternative explanation, though, would relate to something called noblesse oblige. Perhaps you need to have gone to a prep school or Ivy to know what that means, but basically it’s the same as the biblical saying “to whom much is given, much is expected in return.”

In other words, if I was born with a silver spoon in my mouth, is it really necessary for me to take bread out of other the mouths of others? Shouldn’t I feel secure enough that I don’t need to do that sort of thing? Perhaps I should even occasionally help out at the soup kitchen. I don’t know ...

Thursday, April 3, 2014

B Movie Title Generator

I love B movies. Zombies, aliens, bad acting, lame special effects … These things cannot be cheesy enough for me. I love them all. Ed Wood is one of my all-time heroes.

Looking through my collection the other day, I noticed a definite pattern when it came to titles for these things. It seems to go something along the lines of “adjective + entity[+s] of/from place.” You know, like Terror Creatures from the Grave, or Wild Women of Wongo, or Devil Girl from Mars (all real, by the way)


And that led me to create this handy tool. Perhaps you can use it for your own venture into movie-making.

Here’s how it works:
  1. Take your first initial and match it up to the word in column A
  2. Take your middle initial and match it up to the word in column B 
  3. Add the word “from”
  4. Take your last initial and match it up to the phrase in column C*
* For [A], you can pick whatever you like from column A

Voila! You now have a movie.

Let me show you a couple of examples. My full name is Clifford P. Anderson. That gives me “blood” for Clifford, “predators” for P., and “[A] island” for Anderson (let’s go with “zombie” for “[A]”). Put ‘em all together and you get “Blood Predators from Zombie Island.” Duh-duh-duh Duh!

JFK? Demon Creatures from Beyond the Sun! T.S.Eliot? Robot Slaves from Another Universe! Michael J. Fox? Evil Killers from Another World! Lee Harvey Oswald? Doomsday Ghosts from Planet Evil! HR Puffenstuff? Creeping Prisoners from the Savage Planet!

Initial A B C
A alien assassins [A] island
B atomic beasts a different world
C blood bigfoots another dimension
D bloody brain another planet
E cannibal creatures another universe
F chilling demons another world
G crazed devils beneath the sea
H creeping ghosts beyond space
I death invaders beyond the grave
J demon killers beyond the moon
K devil machines beyond the sun
L doomsday madmen beyond the universe
M evil monsters galaxy X
N hell nazis outer space
O horror outlaws planet [A]
P killer predators the [A] planet
Q nazi prey the 6th dimension
R outlaw prisoners the center of the earth
S robo robots the future
T robot slave grave
U savage species the haunted cave
V teenage spiders the lost planet
W terror UFOs the lost universe
X undead vampires the lost world
Y vampire werewolves the underworld
Z zombie zombies the wasteland

Oh, Terror Creatures from the Grave? It’s initials would be WET. Hmm …  It wouldn’t be William Howard Taft (that would give us Terror Ghosts from the Grave though). I know, I know. How about William E. Timmons, Sr.? You know, the famous Washington lobbyist? President of the Timmons Company? Ah, never mind.


Tuesday, March 11, 2014

Conference Realignment: A Modest Proposal

It’s hard to believe that the arch-rival of my alma mater, Duke, is now Syracuse. Or is it Notre Dame? Or was that Texas A&M? Weber State? I’m so confused.

The ACC used to be so predictable, year in and year out. Maryland, Virginia, Wake, NC State, UNC, Duke, Clemson, Georgia Tech ... Heck, I remember when Florida State came into the conference (and I wasn’t too happy about it either). But where the heck is Boston College coming from? Or Pitt? Why is Maryland leaving? And what in the heck does Notre Dame have to do with the coast of the Atlantic Ocean?

It’s a problem that fans are having to deal with all over the country. You’re aware, aren’t you, that the Big 10 now has twelve schools (and will have even more when football season starts again this fall)? Or that the Big 12 now has ten schools (and that one of those schools, West Virginia, is about 900 miles away from its nearest conference rival)?

I know it all has to do with money somehow. It’s not something that makes any sense to me, though, and I have to admit I just simply don’t like it all.

So, here’s my modest proposal for some conferences that really make sense, and that – more importantly – do a great deal to soothe my tortured soul. It’s kind of a unique combination of tradition and geography. Whatever it is, I’m sure you’ll agree that it’s a lot better than what we’ve got now.

The Big Boys

The top level of Div I athletics has a fair amount of stability. These schools have been around awhile, and their conferences are a little more set. So, most of these conferences will look very familiar to you – the ACC, the Big 10, the PAC 10. The Big East and the SEC should look pretty familiar, with a few little changes.

There’s another conference that should look pretty familiar, but which I’m giving a new name. The Plains Conference is basically the Big 12, with a few additions and subtractions. I mean, hey, why name your conference after a number, when that number changes every year?

Now, there is one conference that really is a bit “out there.” I just so happened to notice that Texas has a ton of great schools, but they seem to spread them over a dozen different conferences. So, why don’t we put them all together right? Ladies and gentlemen, meet the Lone Star Conference.

ACC Big 10 Pac 10 Big East SEC Plains Lone Star **
MD Ohio St Wash Boston Coll Miami * Iowa Texas
VA Indiana Wash St Syracuse Florida Iowa St Texas Tech
VA Tech Purdue Oregon Rutgers Florida St * Missou TCU
Wake Notre Dame Oregon St Army * Georgia Nebraska Texas A&M
UNC Michigan Stanford Penn St * Vanderbilt Kansas St SMU
NC State Mich St Cal Pitt Tennessee Kansas Baylor
SC Illinois USC WV Kentucky Oklahoma Houston
Clemson Northwestern UCLA Navy Auburn Okla St Rice
Ga Tech Wisconsin Arizona Alabama Colorado
Minnesota Arizona St Ole Miss
Miss St
LSU
Arkansas

* Never in the conference (all the rest were, at one time or other)
** Brand new conference

By the way, the SEC is big enough that it needs two divisions. I’m seeing a good division between the eastern schools (the top seven) and the western ones (the bottom six).

  • Lt. blue – Pac 10
  • Black – Plains
  • Red – Lone Star
  • Royal blue – Big 10
  • Yellow, left of the line – SEC West
  • Yellow, right of the line – SEC East
  • Orange – ACC
  • Green – Big East

The Second Tier

The next group of schools shows a lot more fluidity. A lot of them are newer, so they lack the tradition that that first group has. They’re also smaller, so they might have to move around a little bit to find their place in the sun.

Now, there are definitely some conferences that will look familiar to you – the Ivy League, the Mid-American, the Western Athletic ... There are also some that shouldn’t be too far of a stretch – Conference USA, the Sun Belt, and the Mountain West. I am, though, adding a brand new one, the South Atlantic, which is basically just a grab-bag for all the leftovers.

This is also where we start to get into some of the non-football schools. I’ve shown those in italics in the table and as triangles on the map. Rest assured, though, there’s plenty of football schools at this level that nobody should have any problems with their fall sports schedules.

Ivy Mid-American Western Athletic Conference USA
Dartmouth N Illinois Hawaii Memphis
Harvard Ball St San Jose W Kentucky *
Brown West Mich Fresno DePaul
Yale Central Mich San Diego St Marquette
Columbia East Mich Nevada Butler *
Cornell Toledo UNLV Cincinnati
Princeton Bowling Green Utah Xavier *
Penn Miami OH Utah St Louisville
Ohio BYU Marshall
Kent
Akron
Mountain West Sunbelt South Atlantic **
Idaho * UTEP * Middle Tenn
Boise St N Texas So Alabama
Wyoming Texas St Troy
Colo St Tulsa * UAB
Air Force Arkansas-LR E Carolina
New Mexico Ark St Fla Intl
NM St LA Tech Fla Atl
Texas-Arl LA-Lafayette UCF
UTSA LA-Monroe USF
Tulane
Southern Miss

* Never in the conference (all the rest were, at one time or other)
** Brand new conference

The second tier’s got two conferences that need to be divided up, the Mid-American and the Sun Belt. For both, I’m making a break between the top five and the bottom six.

  • Lt. blue – Western Athletic
  • Black – Mountain West
  • Red – Sun Belt 
  • Royal blue – Conference USA
  • Orange – Mid-American
  • Yellow – South Atlantic
  • Green – Ivy

The Basketball Schools

Now we are getting into a little different territory. These schools tend to have great basketball teams and no football teams. 

There are a few who do have football though. They’re all in one conference – what I’m calling the Little East – so I guess they can play each other then find some other teams outside their conference. Once again, italics and triangles means no football.

Atlantic West Coast Little East Miss Valley
VCU Gonzaga Providence N Iowa
Geo Wash Seattle UMass Drake
Richmond Portland UConn Creighton
St Joseph San Fran St John Missou St
LaSalle Santa Clara Seton Hall St Louis *
Duquesne Pepperdine Villanova Wichita St
St Bonny Loyola Marymount Temple * S Illinois
Fordham San Diego Georgetown Illinois St
Rhode Isl Buffalo * Bradley
Indiana St
Evansville
Dayton *

* Never in the conference (all the rest were, at one time or other)

There's one conference that needs to be divided up, the Mississippi Valley. It, though, involves an even split between the top six (west of the squiggly line) and the bottom six (east of the squiggly line - roughly, the Mississippi River). 

  • Lt. blue – West Coast
  • Royal blue – Mississippi Valley
  • Yellow – Atlantic
  • Green – Little East

So, there you go, NCAA! Have at it!

Thursday, February 27, 2014

Without the Solid South

I’m a Southerner, so I know my region is a little, um … er … “different.”  Now, that extends to lots of different things, but I want to focus on here is politics.  In particular, I’d like to concentrate on how the South has long been a one-party state.

Now, what’s particularly interesting about that history is how the South switched from being a one-party Democratic state to being a one-party Republican state.  Yes, the parties have changed over the years, but that movement is kind of like switching from being a Red Sox fan to being a Yankees fan, from loving Coke to loving Pepsi, from being a dog person to being a cat person ...  

That switch started roughly with the 1948 election and was pretty well finished in 1972.  In the early years of that period, Southerners often voted for third parties – Strom Thurmond, Robert Byrd, George Wallace.  After Nixon’s landslide over McGovern in ’72, the South neglected to go all red only on rare occasions – typically, for native sons like Carter and Clinton.

Better Off Without ‘Em

I just finished an excellent book, Better Off Without ‘Em, by Chuck Thompson.  The sub-title is “A Northern Manifesto for Southern Secession,” and Thompson does a wonderful job skewering my region and also bemoaning the outsized effect it’s had on the rest of the USA.

That book got me thinking about what presidential elections might have looked like without the solid South.  More recently, it made me wonder if the country would have elected right wingers like Reagan and Bush II.  More historically (say, between the Civil War and JFK), I wondered if the country could have elected any Democrats at all.

Before the Big Switch

Historically, the South was solidly Democratic.  From 1880 through 1916, the region never once voted for a Republican in a presidential election (and only one state defected in both 1920 and 1924).  There were some major defections in 1928 (the Democratic candidate was Catholic – gasp!), but the South went super solid again for all of FDR’s four elections.  

Except for FDR, Democratic presidents were pretty rare birds during this period – basically, just Cleveland and Wilson.  I was wondering, though, if even they could have made it without the solid South.  Looking at the data (basically, subtracting the former Confederacy from the Electoral College), here’s what I got:

Year Dem. Pres. Elected Electoral Votes Electoral Votes w/out South Rep. Electoral Votes Winner
1884 Cleveland 219 120 182 James G. Blaine!!!
1892 Cleveland 277 145 156 Benjamin Harrison!!!
1912 Wilson 435 296 80 Wilson
1916 Wilson 277 138 254 Charles Evans Hughes!!!

So, there would have been only four years of Democratic administrations between the Civil War and FDR, instead of the existing eight.  And school kids would have to memorize two additional presidents, Blaine and Hughes.

Pres. Blaine  

Pres. Hughes

After the Big Switch

Richard Nixon was the first Republican candidate to really go trolling for Southern votes.  It was called the “Southern strategy,” and it was largely the idea of Kevin Phillips.  (I’m not including Barry Goldwater’s version of the same strategy, as Goldwater was very much a fringe candidate back in 1964).

After that, Republicans pretty much dominated the South to the present day, with exceptions for native sons Carter and Clinton in 1976, 1992, and 1996.   Once again, though, I’m wondering how successful they would have been without the (now Republican) solid South.  Let’s take a look.

Year Rep. Pres. Elected Electoral Votes Elec. Votes w/out South Dem. Electoral Votes Winner
1980 Reagan 489 363 49 Reagan
1984 Reagan 525 364 13 Reagan
1988 Bush I 426 271 105 Bush I
2000 Bush II 271 103 261 Gore!!!
2004 Bush II 286 113 251 Kerry!!!

So, once again, eight additional years for the out party (this time, the Democrats), as well as two brand new presidents (though Gore would probably simply have repeated, if he had originally been elected in 2000).

Pres. Gore
  
Pres. Kerry

No South, No Southern Candidates

Up until, oh maybe JFK, Southerners were not well represented on national presidential ballots.  I guess the Democrats just figured they didn’t even have to bother.  The old saying was that Southerners would vote for a “yellow dog” (i.e., a real mongrel) before they would vote for a Republican.  In the same vein, Republicans must have known nominating a Southerner wouldn’t have made any differences whatsoever.

The only exception for Democrats was John Nance Gardner, a Texan, and FDR’s VP in 1932 and 1936 (FDR would actually dump him in 1940).  There wouldn’t be another Southerner until Alban Barkley, a Kentuckian, was Truman’s VP in 1948.  

(I really don’t count Woodrow Wilson as a Southerner.  Yes, he was born and grew up down here – and was a terrible racist – but he headed up North for college, and never looked back.)

It was only after Nixon that Southerners started playing a major role on each party’s tickets,  Actually, they rather started to dominate things – Carter, Bentsen, Clinton, Gore, Bush I, Bush II.  

So, if we were to eliminate the South from the electoral college, I guess we’d have to eliminate any Southern candidates as well.  And here’s what that might mean:

Year Party Position Actual Candidate Likely Non-Southern Candidate
1932 Democrat VP Garner Al Smith
1936 Democrat VP Garner Al Smith
1948 Democrat VP Barkley William O. Douglas (Supreme Court Justice)
1960 Democrat VP LBJ Stuart Symington (MO Senator)
1964 Democrat Pres. LBJ Symington
1976 Democrat Pres. Carter Mo Udall (AZ Congressman)
1980 Democrat Pres. Carter Udall
1980 Republican VP Bush I John Anderson (IL Congressman)
1984 Republican VP Bush I Anderson
1988 Republican Pres. Bush I Anderson
1988 Democrat VP Lloyd Bentsen Dick Gephardt (MO Congressman)
1992 Democrat Pres. Clinton Jerry Brown
1992 Democrat VP Gore Paul Tsongas
1996 Democrat Pres. Clinton Jerry Brown
1996 Democrat VP Gore Paul Tsongas
2000 Democrat Pres. Gore Bill Bradley
2000 Republican Pres. Bush II John McCain
2004 Republican Pres. Bush II John McCain
2004 Democrat VP John Edwards * Gephardt / Tom Vilsac

* Bradley / Lieberman may have simply repeated

So, who would it have been in 1992, Jerry Brown or John Anderson?   Would you have voted for Mo Udall in 1976 (heck, would you have voted for anyone who wasn’t associated in any way, shape, or form with Nixon)?  Who would it have been in 2000, McCain or former Knick Bill Bradley?  Oh, and does this mean Linda Ronstadt would have been the first lady?

Pres. Symington

Pres. Udall

Pres. Brown with
First Lady Linda Ronstadt