The electoral vote, though, was not that close, 304 to 227. How could that be? The only other presidential elections where the winner lost the popular vote to someone else tended to be much closer.
Trump won because of three states decided by less than 1% – Pennsylvania (.72), Michigan (.23), and Wisconsin (.77). If these pretty populous states had gone to Clinton, she would have won 278 to 262.
In other words, if 3,000 voters in Pennsylvania, 3,500 in Ohio, and 4,000 in Wisconsin had switched, it would have been a whole different story. Put those all together, and you’d still have room left over trying to fill Dudy Noble Field, home of the Mississippi State baseball team, or Hiram Bithorn Stadium, home of the Santurce Crabbers.
Now, you’ve probably already noticed that 48.2 and 46.1 don’t add up to 100, so you’re probably also wondering about third party candidates. Sure enough, if you subtract votes for the Green Party’s Jill Stein you’ll find Clinton wins again:
- Pennsylvania – .81 > .72
- Ohio – .84 > .23
- Wisconsin – 1.04 > .77
I mean, honestly, I don’t see these folks voting for Trump (though they could, of course, just as easily have stayed at home).
At the same time, there is also the Libertarian Party’s Gary Johnson, who polled over 2% in each of those states. I figure some of those votes could have gone Democratic, but I have a feeling most of them would have gone for Trump (if, once again, they didn’t just simply sleep in).
Finally, you’ve got Evan McMullin. He polled between 1 and 2% in 5 states, and an incredible 21.5% in Utah. You gotta figure all those voters who actually would’ve gone to the polls would’ve gone Republican too.
All that said, did you know that there have been 4 elections where the winner of the popular vote did not win the electoral college? Further, did you know that a Republican won each of those:
- 1876 – Hayes over Tilden
- 1888 – Harrison over Cleveland
- 2000 – Bush over Gore
- 2016 – Trump over Clinton
Can't wait to see what happens in 2020.
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