Without the Solid South

I’m a Southerner, so I know my region is a little, um … er … “different.”  Now, that extends to lots of different things, but I want to focus on here is politics.  In particular, I’d like to concentrate on how the South has long been a one-party state.

Now, what’s particularly interesting about that history is how the South switched from being a one-party Democratic state to being a one-party Republican state.  Yes, the parties have changed over the years, but that movement is kind of like switching from being a Red Sox fan to being a Yankees fan, from loving Coke to loving Pepsi, from being a dog person to being a cat person ...  

That switch started roughly with the 1948 election and was pretty well finished in 1972.  In the early years of that period, Southerners often voted for third parties – Strom Thurmond, Robert Byrd, George Wallace.  After Nixon’s landslide over McGovern in ’72, the South neglected to go all red only on rare occasions – typically, for native sons like Carter and Clinton.

Better Off Without ‘Em

I just finished an excellent book, Better Off Without ‘Em, by Chuck Thompson.  The sub-title is “A Northern Manifesto for Southern Secession,” and Thompson does a wonderful job skewering my region and also bemoaning the outsized effect it’s had on the rest of the USA.

That book got me thinking about what presidential elections might have looked like without the solid South.  More recently, it made me wonder if the country would have elected right wingers like Reagan and Bush II.  More historically (say, between the Civil War and JFK), I wondered if the country could have elected any Democrats at all.

Before the Big Switch

Historically, the South was solidly Democratic.  From 1880 through 1916, the region never once voted for a Republican in a presidential election (and only one state defected in both 1920 and 1924).  There were some major defections in 1928 (the Democratic candidate was Catholic – gasp!), but the South went super solid again for all of FDR’s four elections.  

Except for FDR, Democratic presidents were pretty rare birds during this period – basically, just Cleveland and Wilson.  I was wondering, though, if even they could have made it without the solid South.  Looking at the data (basically, subtracting the former Confederacy from the Electoral College), here’s what I got:

Year	Dem. Pres. Elected	Electoral Votes	Electoral Votes w/out South	Rep. Electoral Votes	Winner
1884	Cleveland	219	120	182	James G. Blaine!!!
1892	Cleveland	277	145	156	Benjamin Harrison!!!
1912	Wilson	435	296	80	Wilson
1916	Wilson	277	138	254	Charles Evans Hughes!!!

So, there would have been only four years of Democratic administrations between the Civil War and FDR, instead of the existing eight.  And school kids would have to memorize two additional presidents, Blaine and Hughes.

Pres. Blaine  

Pres. Hughes

After the Big Switch

Richard Nixon was the first Republican candidate to really go trolling for Southern votes.  It was called the “Southern strategy,” and it was largely the idea of Kevin Phillips.  (I’m not including Barry Goldwater’s version of the same strategy, as Goldwater was very much a fringe candidate back in 1964).

After that, Republicans pretty much dominated the South to the present day, with exceptions for native sons Carter and Clinton in 1976, 1992, and 1996.   Once again, though, I’m wondering how successful they would have been without the (now Republican) solid South.  Let’s take a look.

Year	Rep. Pres. Elected	Electoral Votes	Elec. Votes w/out South	Dem. Electoral Votes	Winner
1980	Reagan	489	363	49	Reagan
1984	Reagan	525	364	13	Reagan
1988	Bush I	426	271	105	Bush I
2000	Bush II	271	103	261	Gore!!!
2004	Bush II	286	113	251	Kerry!!!

So, once again, eight additional years for the out party (this time, the Democrats), as well as two brand new presidents (though Gore would probably simply have repeated, if he had originally been elected in 2000).

Pres. Gore

  

Pres. Kerry

No South, No Southern Candidates

Up until, oh maybe JFK, Southerners were not well represented on national presidential ballots.  I guess the Democrats just figured they didn’t even have to bother.  The old saying was that Southerners would vote for a “yellow dog” (i.e., a real mongrel) before they would vote for a Republican.  In the same vein, Republicans must have known nominating a Southerner wouldn’t have made any differences whatsoever.

The only exception for Democrats was John Nance Gardner, a Texan, and FDR’s VP in 1932 and 1936 (FDR would actually dump him in 1940).  There wouldn’t be another Southerner until Alban Barkley, a Kentuckian, was Truman’s VP in 1948.  

(I really don’t count Woodrow Wilson as a Southerner.  Yes, he was born and grew up down here – and was a terrible racist – but he headed up North for college, and never looked back.)

It was only after Nixon that Southerners started playing a major role on each party’s tickets,  Actually, they rather started to dominate things – Carter, Bentsen, Clinton, Gore, Bush I, Bush II.  

So, if we were to eliminate the South from the electoral college, I guess we’d have to eliminate any Southern candidates as well.  And here’s what that might mean:

Year	Party	Position	Actual Candidate	Likely Non-Southern Candidate
1932	Democrat	VP	Garner	Al Smith
1936	Democrat	VP	Garner	Al Smith
1948	Democrat	VP	Barkley	William O. Douglas (Supreme Court Justice)
1960	Democrat	VP	LBJ	Stuart Symington (MO Senator)
1964	Democrat	Pres.	LBJ	Symington
1976	Democrat	Pres.	Carter	Mo Udall (AZ Congressman)
1980	Democrat	Pres.	Carter	Udall
1980	Republican	VP	Bush I	John Anderson (IL Congressman)
1984	Republican	VP	Bush I	Anderson
1988	Republican	Pres.	Bush I	Anderson
1988	Democrat	VP	Lloyd Bentsen	Dick Gephardt (MO Congressman)
1992	Democrat	Pres.	Clinton	Jerry Brown
1992	Democrat	VP	Gore	Paul Tsongas
1996	Democrat	Pres.	Clinton	Jerry Brown
1996	Democrat	VP	Gore	Paul Tsongas
2000	Democrat	Pres.	Gore	Bill Bradley
2000	Republican	Pres.	Bush II	John McCain
2004	Republican	Pres.	Bush II	John McCain
2004	Democrat	VP	John Edwards *	Gephardt / Tom Vilsac

* Bradley / Lieberman may have simply repeated

So, who would it have been in 1992, Jerry Brown or John Anderson?   Would you have voted for Mo Udall in 1976 (heck, would you have voted for anyone who wasn’t associated in any way, shape, or form with Nixon)?  Who would it have been in 2000, McCain or former Knick Bill Bradley?  Oh, and does this mean Linda Ronstadt would have been the first lady?

Pres. Symington

Pres. Udall

Pres. Brown with
First Lady Linda Ronstadt