The World Series Time-Off Curse

Every World Series (WS), the announcers bring up the idea of the time-off curse. That’s what supposedly happens to the team that cruises through the League Championship Series (LCS), has to hang around while their opponents grind out a 4-3 series win, and then loses the WS because they’re “rusty.”

So, is it actually true?

4-0 Vs. 4-3

This is the big one. You sailed through the LCS with a  4-0 record while your opponent slogged through at 4-3. They’ve got a coupla days tops to get ready. You, on the other hand, have a week or so to hang out, think about the upcoming series, mow the lawn, think about the series, get some golf in, worry about the series …

Interestingly, the pundits are absolutely right on this one. There have been 6 WSs since 1985 (when the LCSs went from 3 games to win to 4) that fit this mold. And in those 6 contests, only twice has the 4-0 team won. Though from a small sample size, a very poor 33% win rate seems pretty on the money here.

2026: Brewers (4-0) beat Rays (4-3)

3-0 Vs. 3-2

As mentioned above, before 1985, the LCS took only 3 wins to gain the pennant. How did the winners fare then? 

Unfortunately, this only happened 3 times in the 15 years from 1969 through 1984. In those 3 years, the rested team went 2-1, for a 67% winning percentage. 

So, though that sample size is definitely too small, we do have some conflicting numbers. Put these together with the previous results, though, and we’re still below .500, at 44%.

1980: Phil (4-3) beat KC (4-0)

Less Strict

So, what happens if we’re a little more loose? How about if the rested team actually lost a game, or if the tired team actually lost only 2 (I’m only doing this for 4-win series)?

There have actually been 10 situations like this – so, much better sample size, if nothing else. And wouldn’t you know? The rested team in this situation has only lost 3 times, for a winning percentage of 70%.

Add all of these together and the rested team is 10-9, for a winning percentage of 53%. Pretty even odds, no?

2017: Houston (4-3) vs. LAD (4-1)