2020 Presidential Election Prediction

Gotta get it all down.

It’s certainly been in my head for a good long while. And as the big day approaches, it seems to take up more and more space up there. Heck, as an old political junkie, I’ve actually used it to fight insomnia, kind of like a particularly obsessed way of counting sheep.

So, with 2 weeks to go, my predictions for the 2020 presidential race …

Worst Case

I’m not sure my heart and nervous system could take another one of these, but here you go. This is really just taking various maps out there and turning everything that wasn’t at least “likely” blue to red.

Squeaker

This one basically takes the worst-case scenario and adds in the “leans” blue states, adding only enough of those to get Biden over the line (and in order of how they were polling on 538.com).

This could actually be the way things look on Wednesday morning if:

• The South stays red 
• The upper Midwest reverts back to blue

Best Case

I wish. This one takes the “leans” blue plus all the toss-ups (and one “leans” red, Texas) and paints them all blue. It’s really not that far-fetched, at least according to current polls. We’ll see …

Fantasyland

What if we eliminated all the “leans” and “likelys” from multiple sources, having them breaking blue, in both cases? You’d get something crazy (and highly attractive and extremely unlikely), like this:

My Prediction

I’m gonna play it safe here. This one simply takes the squeaker scenario and throws in two more states – Florida and Arizona – that seem to have a pretty good shot of reversing their 2016 votes.